World Cup

Who lifts the trophy on July 19, 2026? Title probabilities for all 48 teams, generated by our forecasting agent: an Elo prior run through 100,000 Monte-Carlo tournament simulations, then Bayesian-updated with key evidence — injuries, squads, form — without ever consulting a market price.

87 public forecasts · no market prices consulted · publicly Brier-scored · forecast time 2026-06-11 13:15 UTC

🇪🇸36.95%Spain🇦🇷24.34%Argentina🇫🇷13.71%France🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿7.07%England🇵🇹3.55%Portugal🇨🇴3.21%Colombia🇧🇷2.87%Brazil🇳🇱1.41%Netherlands🇪🇨1.16%Ecuador🇩🇪0.94%Germany🇹🇷0.73%Türkiye🇳🇴0.69%Norway🇭🇷0.63%Croatia🇧🇪0.58%Belgium🇯🇵0.56%Japan🇨🇭0.46%SwitzerlandFlag size ∝ title probability · click for full reasoning
1🇪🇸Spain36.95%2🇦🇷Argentina24.34%3🇫🇷France13.71%4🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England7.07%5🇵🇹Portugal3.55%6🇨🇴Colombia3.21%7🇧🇷Brazil2.87%8🇳🇱Netherlands1.41%9🇪🇨Ecuador1.16%10🇩🇪Germany0.94%11🇹🇷Türkiye0.73%12🇳🇴Norway0.69%13🇭🇷Croatia0.63%14🇧🇪Belgium0.58%15🇯🇵Japan0.56%16🇨🇭Switzerland0.46%17🇺🇾Uruguay0.39%18🇲🇽Mexico0.27%19🇸🇳Senegal0.17%20🇵🇾Paraguay0.08%21🇲🇦Morocco0.07%22🇦🇹Austria0.05%23🇨🇦Canada0.04%24🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland0.01%25🇮🇷Iran0.01%26🇰🇷South Korea<0.01%27🇨🇿Czechia<0.01%28🇦🇺Australia<0.01%29🇩🇿Algeria<0.01%30🇵🇦Panama<0.01%31🇺🇸USA<0.01%32🇸🇪Sweden<0.01%33🇪🇬Egypt<0.01%34🇯🇴Jordan<0.01%35🇿🇦South Africa<0.01%36🇧🇦Bosnia & Herzegovina<0.01%37🇶🇦Qatar<0.01%38🇭🇹Haiti<0.01%39🇨🇮Côte d'Ivoire<0.01%40🇨🇼Curaçao<0.01%41🇹🇳Tunisia<0.01%42🇳🇿New Zealand<0.01%43🇸🇦Saudi Arabia<0.01%44🇨🇻Cape Verde<0.01%45🇮🇶Iraq<0.01%46🇺🇿Uzbekistan<0.01%47🇨🇩DR Congo<0.01%48🇬🇭Ghana<0.01%

Our take

Spain leads at ~37% with Argentina ~24% and France ~14% — the top-four Elo tier (Spain/Argentina/France/England) combines for ~82%, while Brazil and the Netherlands take bounded downgrades for multiple key injuries.

  • Elo stratification: Spain 2157, Argentina 2115, France 2063 and England 2024 sit 30+ points clear of fifth place; the four combine for ~82% of titles across 100k Monte Carlo runs. source · 2026-06-11
  • Injury asymmetry: Brazil (Neymar doubtful; Rodrygo/Militao/Estevao out), the Netherlands (Timber/Simons/De Ligt/Schouten out) and Germany (Ter Stegen/Gnabry out) are depleted while France, England and Colombia are near full strength — driving the bounded adjustments. source · 2026-06-11
  • The new format amplifies strength gaps: with 48 teams, 104 matches and an added round of 32, the champion must win five straight knockout rounds, compounding the Elo edge of the top tier. source · 2026-06-11
Read the full reasoning →10 sources · confidence medium

Probability research from public data only. Not financial or betting advice. Forecasts are probabilities, not certainties. 18+ where required.